In Castelsaraceno, the stable characteristics of the deseasonalised component on the NDVI show little relevance with the steep trend of the SPI48 until 2003 , implying that the climate of the region can sustain healthy vegetation. Nevertheless, a shorter greenness season during the period 1997-2003 versus 1985-1990 may be the result of dryer summers, causing an earlier recede of herbaceous vegetation. Climate change is bound to aggravate these conditions, with higher temperatures and increased aridity stressing vegetation intended for grazing.

Note: For an overview of the historical drivers of change and their analysis in all study sites see »Drivers of change in the study sites.